Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Ear th’s Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe

An analysis is undertaken to reveal the role that various processes in living and nonliving nature play in the establishment of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and the temperature balance of the Earth. An inference is made that the biospheric mechanisms of CO2 removal from the atmosphere are insufficient in the situation of the current anthropogenic impact and the existence of potentially dangerous CO2 sources in nonliving nature, which may be activated with the increase in the Earth’s average temperature. It is shown that the sustainability of natural systems responsible for the maintenance of the chemical composition of the atmosphere is itself impaired as the human activity destroys climate-forming biocenoses. This can lead to an irreversible change in the Earth’s climate, with the result that the Earth’s average temperature would rise to 100–150°C and above. This will render life on the Earth (at least in its present form) impossible. A radiative–adiabatic model of the greenhouse effect is constructed and used to make asymptotic estimates of the increase in the Earth’s average temperature with varying concentration of greenhouse gases over a wide range. On the basis of this model, an integral model of the change in the Earth’s climate is constructed, which takes into account the thermal inertia of the ocean and the aerosol pollution of the upper atmosphere. It is demonstrated that an irreversible (catastrophic) change in the Earth’s climate (the greenhouse catastrophe) can take place in relatively near future in 200–300 years.